E. V. Vasiliev (Industrial University of Tyumen, Tyumen)

Calculation and selection of the optimal steel grade for gas field pipeline construction

This article presents a methodology for the feasibility study of steel grade selection for field pipelines during gas field development. The optimal steel strength class for the construction of gas and condensate pipelines is determined, taking into account operating parameters and climatic conditions. An algorithm is used to calculate the pipe wall thickness, metal content, and permissible soil settlement for various steel grades within the context of a compressor station project. An analysis and comparison of options is conducted taking into account economic criteria, thereby minimizing the costs of construction and operation of the pipeline system.
Keywords: field pipeline; steel grades; metal content; strength class; gas field.

 

M. Yu. Printseva, I. V. Klaptyuk, Yu. N. Belshina, Yu. N. Eliseev (Saint-Petersburg university of State fire service of EMERCOM of Russia, Saint-Petersburg)

Application of an integrated approach to evaluate the properties of flame-retardant coatings for metal structures

The article presents the results of a study of the effectiveness of samples of flame-retardant bulging coatings (ORP) of metal structures using a set of methods including synchronous thermal analysis and IR spectroscopy. A comparison of the results obtained using these methods with the results of the coating test to determine the swelling coefficient shows their agreement. It is shown that the application of an integrated approach not only makes it possible to conclude about the condition of the coating, including the presence of critical changes that reduce its effectiveness, but also to identify possible causes of such deviations.
Keywords: fireproof intumescent coatings; metal structures; thermal analysis; coating quality; infrared spectroscopy; identification.

 

E. A. Sakharov (Kovrov State Technological University named after V. A. Degtyarev, Kovrov)

Justification of the use of foam metals in agricultural engineering

This article discusses the potential applications of foam metals in agricultural engineering. It analyzes the unique properties of foam metals, such as high specific strength, low density, energy absorption, and corrosion resistance, which can be beneficial for the design and production of agricultural machinery. Specific applications are discussed, including reducing the weight of machines, increasing their strength and durability, improving shock absorption, and reducing vibrations. Challenges associated with the implementation of foam metals are also addressed, such as production costs, processing techniques, and the need for further research to optimize their application in specific agricultural settings.
Keywords: foam metals; agricultural engineering; lightweight structures; strength; corrosion resistance; energy absorption; vibration; innovation. 

 

G. A. Gareeva (KNRTU-KAI’s Branch in Naberezhnye Chelny, Naberezhnye Chelny); A. G. Fayzullina (Kazan Federal University – Naberezhnye Chelny Institute, Naberezhnye Chelny); Z. Sh. Aglyamova, A. A. Zagitov (Kazan Innovative University named after V. G. Timiryasov, Naberezhnye Chelny); Yu. N. Burkhanova (Kazan Innovative University named after V. G. Timiryasov; Naberezhnye Chelny State Pedagogical University, Naberezhnye Chelny)

Development of an application to automate the employee onboarding process

This article presents the development of an application designed to automate the employee onboarding process. It helps improve HR management efficiency and reduce the onboarding time for new employees, who receive onboarding assignments, become familiar with regulations, track their onboarding progress, and interact with the HR department. Visual Studio Code was selected as the development environment, the React Native framework as the mobile layout tool, and MongoDB as the database.
Keywords: development; HR management; design; onboarding; onboarding; React Native; Visual Studio Code; MongoDB.

 

A. S. Govorkov, E. O. Pokhomchikova, I. V. Fokin (Irkutsk National Research Technical University, Irkutsk)

A method of automated dismantling of a mechanically engineered product based on its electronic model

The article considers the task of automated construction of a machine‑building product on the basis of its electronic model, which includes 3D geometry of parts, assembly structure and surface quality attributes according to current standards. It is shown that the traditional manual formation of inter-shop routes significantly complicates the technological preparation of production in the context of frequent changes in design documentation and the expansion of the product range. A technique is proposed in which the electronic model is used as an initial source of technologically significant information: based on the analysis of geometry and attributes, parts are classified by technological classes, the type of workpiece and the corresponding typical route through the workshops are selected. Additional refinement of the molding is carried out taking into account the requirements for individual surfaces, which allows you to automatically determine the need for stamping, bending, machining, heat treatment and coating operations in specific workshops and sites. The developed algorithm includes the stage of checking the received route for compatibility with the production structure of the enterprise and forming the final procurement scheme, which is transmitted to PDM/ERP systems for further planning. Using the example of a sheet part with a curved side, the possibilities of the proposed approach to reduce the complexity of the technologist's work, increase the consistency of design and technological information, and create a foundation for subsequent integration with scheduling and production planning systems are demonstrated.
Keywords: automated packaging; electronic product model; technological preparation of production; machine-building enterprise; sheet metal part.

 

S. V. Karpova, M. A. Kirpicheva, J. S. Ulanovskaya (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Digital avatars of decision-making centers of purchasing companies as a tool for predictive customer orientation

The article discusses the concept of introducing digital avatars of the target audience and automated content generators based on artificial intelligence to increase customer orientation in the forging and stamping industry. The proposed methodology makes it possible to model the behavior of B2B decision makers, optimizing marketing communications, shortening the transaction cycle and increasing the accuracy of positioning complex technical products. The results of the study demonstrate the effectiveness of integrating generative models into the processes of advancing forgings and stamped workpieces.
Keywords: generative artificial intelligence; B2B marketing; customer orientation; pressure processing of materials; digital avatars; digital doubles of consumers.

 

T. V. Vashchenko (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Economic assessment of predictive maintenance implementation efficiency in manufacturing enterprises: methodology and empirical results

Unplanned equipment downtime in manufacturing generates aggregate global losses estimated by Deloitte at $50 billion annually, while suboptimal maintenance strategies reduce individual plant capacity by 5–20 %. The transition from reactive and preventive models to predictive maintenance (PdM), underpinned by IIoT sensor data analytics and machine learning algorithms, is widely regarded as a key economic opportunity of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. This study develops and tests a comprehensive economic assessment methodology for PdM implementation integrating OEE, DCF, and TCO metrics, using data from 47 Russian manufacturing enterprises (2021–2025). Correlation and regression analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and scenario modelling are applied. Results demonstrate average maintenance cost reductions of 22–28 %, OEE improvements of 8–14 percentage points, and payback periods of 9–16 months depending on the industry segment. A formalized model for assessing the net present effect of a PdM project accounting for both direct and indirect economic benefits is proposed.
Keywords: predictive maintenance; overall equipment effectiveness; manufacturing industry; economic assessment; Industry 4.0; industrial internet of things; total cost of ownership.

 

N. V. Kuchkovskaya (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Energy intensity of Russia's manufacturing sector: decomposition analysis of structural and technological factors (2018–2024)

The study provides a quantitative assessment of the contributions of structural shifts and technological modernization to the dynamics of specific energy intensity in the Russian manufacturing sector over the period 2018–2024. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI-I) method in additive form is employed as the analytical tool, enabling decomposition of changes in aggregate energy intensity into three components: the activity effect (changes in output volume), the structural effect (redistribution of sub-sector shares in total value added), and the intensity effect (technological reduction of specific energy consumption). The information base comprised Rosstat data on industrial production indices, the fuel and energy balance of manufacturing industries, and gross value added indicators for 14 sub-sectors (two-digit OKVED level). Calculations are performed on an annual basis, which made it possible to capture the impact of external shocks of 2020 and 2022 on the energy-economic proportions of the sector. The aggregate energy intensity decreased by approximately 11,4 % over the analyzed period, with the structural effect accounting for about 62 % of the total reduction due to accelerated growth of less energy-intensive industries (electronics, pharmaceuticals, fabricated metal products), while the intensity effect explained approximately 38 % of the decline. However, a partial reversal of the intensity effect is identified in the 2022–2024 sub-period, associated with accelerated capacity utilization under limited access to imported equipment. The results confirm that the observed improvement in energy efficiency of Russia's manufacturing sector is primarily driven by structural transformation rather than technological renewal, justifying the need for targeted industrial policy aimed at stimulating sub-sectoral investment in energy conservation.
Keywords: energy intensity; manufacturing industry; LMDI decomposition; structural shifts; energy efficiency; industrial policy.

 

M. P. Lazarev (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Technical efficiency of Russian manufacturing: sectoral decomposition and productivity gap determinants (2017–2024)

Russian manufacturing demonstrated sustained output growth of 8,7 % and 8.5% year-on-year in 2023 and 2024 respectively, yet this growth is heterogeneous across subsectors and not always accompanied by improvements in factor productivity. This study provides a quantitative assessment of technical efficiency across six key manufacturing subsectors – machinery, chemicals, metallurgy, food processing, building materials, and wood processing – over the 2017–2024 period. The methodology employs stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) with a translog production function specification, supplemented by total factor productivity (TFP) decomposition into technological change, pure technical efficiency change, and scale effects. The empirical base comprises panel data from Rosstat and SPARK-Interfax covering 2840 enterprises. Results reveal a significant intersectoral gap: mean technical efficiency ranges from 0,58 in wood processing to 0,79 in chemicals, with the gap widening during 2020–2024. Key efficiency determinants include equipment investment intensity, R&D expenditure share, and fixed asset age. The structural shift toward machinery, which accounted for approximately 40 % of aggregate manufacturing output growth, masks efficiency stagnation in resource-intensive sectors. Findings carry practical implications for designing targeted sectoral modernization programs and investment allocation.
Keywords: technical efficiency; stochastic frontier analysis; manufacturing industry; total factor productivity; translog model; growth decomposition; industrial policy.

 

A. M. Kireeva-Karimova, G. A. Khaziakhmetova (Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, Kazan); A. S. Kozlovsky (Gydravlika Trade LLC, Kazan)

Modernization of corporate information systems to enhance the competitiveness of metalworking enterprises

The article presents the results of an analysis and assessment of the corporate information systems of Gydravlika Trade, LLC, an industrial enterprise in the metalworking sector. A correlation is identified between the level of information system automation and the efficiency of management processes with elements of digital transformation, and the economic feasibility of modernizing the ERP system is substantiated, taking into account the specifics of business processes in stamping production in the metalworking sector.
Keywords: corporate information systems (CIS); automation and digitalization of production management; ERP system; digital transformation; competitiveness of a metalworking enterprise.

 

A. I. Galkin (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Public-private partnership and the role of development institutions in financing R&D and implementing innovations in manufacturing industries under high macroeconomic uncertainty

The article analyzes how public-private partnership and development institutions influence the financing of R&D and the implementation of innovations in manufacturing industries under conditions of high macroeconomic uncertainty and rising cost of capital. The aim of the study is to provide a quantitative assessment of the comparative efficiency of different financing models (fully public, fully private, PPP with the participation of development institutions), as well as to identify the multiplicative effect of support instruments and the resilience of projects to macro shocks. The empirical base consists of depersonalized microdata of financial and management reports of 1458 industrial enterprises for 2018–2024, registries of recipients of state support, and data from development institutions; the applied methods include real options, panel regression models with fixed effects, Difference-in-Differences, RAROC and EVA indicators, and stress testing of cash flows under scenarios of changes in the key rate and exchange rate. It is shown that the PPP model provides the highest average ROIC and Sharpe ratio with a moderate extension of Time-to-Market and a smaller budget overrun than in purely public projects, as well as a higher share of projects with positive NPV. The analysis of development institutions’ instruments reveals significant differentiation: guarantee support demonstrates the maximum multiplier of private capital with the minimum cost of creating one job, while equity participation generates the greatest patent activity at the expense of an increased write-off risk; grants are effective at early stages but attract almost no private funds, and concessional lending occupies an intermediate position. Stress testing shows a high sensitivity of IRR, NPV, and DSCR of projects to the tightening of financial conditions, confirming the need for built-in income stabilization mechanisms and flexible contract revision terms. It is concluded that in the «market failure» zone arising from increasing volatility and risk premiums, PPPs with active participation of development institutions become a key mechanism for maintaining innovation activity, and the optimal policy architecture should combine guarantee and equity instruments, adaptive PPP models, and risk-oriented project portfolio management.
Keywords: public-private partnership; development institutions; R&D financing; innovative projects; macroeconomic uncertainty.

 

N. L. Krasyukova (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Import substitution and production localization as instruments of industrial strategy and resilience to sanction shocks

The article is devoted to assessing the role of import substitution and production localization as key instruments of Russia’s modern industrial strategy under conditions of unprecedented sanctions pressure and the disruption of traditional foreign trade and financial ties. To conduct a quantitative analysis of the impact of localization depth on the financial stability of industrial enterprises, the structure of funding sources, operational cycle parameters, and resilience to supply chain shocks. The information base includes data from Rosstat, the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, customs statistics, and a sample of 450 largest industrial enterprises for 2018–2024 representing mechanical engineering, chemical industry, metallurgy, and the agro-industrial complex, supplemented by survey results of top management; a panel of over 12,000 observations was formed using a stratified sampling method. The methodological framework comprises economic and statistical analysis, calculation of import dependency and value-added coefficients, panel regression models with fixed effects, scenario forecasting, input-output interindustry analysis, and evaluation of state support effectiveness. It is shown that in strategic industries there has been a significant decrease in import dependency ratios accompanied by a decline in EBITDA profitability and a sharp increase in capital expenditures forming a «localization investment pit»; the lengthening of the operational cycle and inventory turnover period reflects a transition from the Just-in-Time model to Just-in-Case and an increase in the need for working capital. A shift in the financing structure from bank lending to a combination of internal funds and state support has been recorded, leading to the dominance of a reinvestment model and state paternalism. It is concluded that import substitution has evolved into a long-term structural transformation strategy enhancing technological sovereignty but requiring a reorientation of industrial policy from large-scale subsidization to targeted support for high-tech projects, stimulation of R&D, automation and productivity growth, as well as coordination among the state, business, and the scientific and educational complex to overcome investment and labor constraints.
Keywords: import substitution; production localization; industrial policy; financial stability; technological sovereignty.

 

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S. G. Eremin (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow); O. V. Arashkevich (Francisk Skorina Gomel State University, Gomel, Belarus)

Mechanisms for coordination of financial-credit and industrial policy to accelerate the implementation of advanced manufacturing technologies in small and medium-sized businesses

The article examines the mechanisms of coordination between financial-credit and industrial policy as a key condition for the accelerated implementation of advanced manufacturing technologies in the small and medium business sector. The aim of the study is to quantitatively assess the impact of the coherence of monetary, fiscal, and regulatory instruments on SME investment activity, the rate of fixed asset renewal, operational efficiency, and regional disparities in technological development. The empirical base consists of depersonalized microdata from the financial statements of 14580 industrial SMEs for 2018-2023, combined with public support registries and credit history data, as well as the results of surveys and expert interviews. The methodological toolkit includes Difference-in-Differences with the application of Propensity Score Matching to overcome self-selection bias, an integral policy coherence index, modified Cobb–Douglas models, regional clustering based on the maturity of the support ecosystem, and simulation modeling of cash flows of a typical enterprise. It is shown that comprehensive support (preferential lending combined with technological consulting) provides a multiple increase in value added per employee and in the renewal rate of the active part of fixed assets compared with an isolated reduction of the interest rate, while simultaneously reducing the share of defaults and increasing energy efficiency. The implementation of AMT leads to a profound transformation of the cost structure: the share of depreciation and capital intensity increases, while material intensity and the wage share in revenue decrease; ROIC steadily exceeds the cost of capital, generating a positive spread of economic efficiency. Regional analysis demonstrates that in territories with a high institutional coordination index, the amount of investment per enterprise, the share of high-tech products in GRP, and the investment multiplier are several times higher than in lagging regions, with significantly shorter project payback periods; output elasticity with respect to the coordination factor is comparable to capital elasticity. It is revealed that medium-sized manufacturing companies derive the highest marginal return from coordination, whereas microbusinesses and large corporations are less sensitive to support instruments. It is concluded that a transition from fragmented measures to an ecosystem-based policy model is built on digital platforms, seamless data exchange between regulators and banks, and aimed at creating sustainable demand for high-tech SME products.
Keywords: financial-credit policy; industrial policy; small and medium-sized business; advanced manufacturing technologies; economic policy coordination.

 

O. V. Panina (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow

The impact of industrial policy on the long-term structural transformation of the economy considering technological sovereignty and the dynamics of global value chains

The article is devoted to the quantitative assessment of the impact of modern industrial policy on the long-term structural transformation of the national economy in the context of achieving technological sovereignty and the changing configuration of global value chains. The aim of the study is to identify how the combination of government support instruments and the depth of production localization affects the dynamics of gross value added, capital efficiency, and operational risks in various technological clusters of industry. The empirical base includes panel data on 1450 industrial enterprises for 2014–2024, official statistics from national and international organizations, as well as input–output tables, which make it possible to compare national trends with the dynamics of participation in GVCs. Methodologically, the study employs shift–share structural analysis, input–output analysis, panel models with fixed effects, an author’s technological sovereignty index (based on the structure of CAPEX and intermediate consumption), indicators of financial sustainability (modified Altman coefficients, EVA), as well as clustering of industries and regions by adaptation types. The results show that the high-tech sector demonstrates accelerated growth of GVA (over 50 % in 2020–2024) accompanied by a decline in ROIC, which reflects a J-shaped trajectory of return on investments in localization and R&D; the low-tech sector is characterized by stagnation and capital displacement. The growth of the localization index is accompanied by an increase in operating leverage, a decline in inventory turnover, and higher EBITDA volatility, indicating a trade-off between sovereignty and financial stability during the transition phase. A comparative analysis of government support tools shows that mechanisms of risk sharing and long-term commitments (SPICs, concessional loans from development funds) provide higher investment and fiscal multipliers compared to direct cost subsidies. The conclusion is made about the need to reorient industrial policy from large-scale import substitution toward a strategy of smart specialization and selective support for high-tech clusters, linking the localization of critical segments with increased productivity and resilience of value chains.
Keywords: industrial policy; technological sovereignty; structural transformation; global value chains; government support.

 

I. Yu. Vaslavskaya (Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, Kazan); A. A. Elakova (Naberezhnye Chelny Institute of Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, Kazan); E. A. Smirnova (V. I. Vernadsky Crimean Federal University, Simferopol); A. V. Aleshkov (Pacific National University, Khabarovsk)

Optimization of industrial enterprise management: innovative mechanisms and methods

Growing interest in innovative management mechanisms is driven by their key role in improving the performance of industrial enterprises and the potential to create competitive advantages based on intangible resources. The purpose of this article is to highlight various aspects of innovative management at industrial enterprises and identify opportunities for leveraging management innovations. The study examines the essence of management innovations and highlights the determinacy of innovative management at industrial enterprises.
Keywords: concepts; methods; management innovations; innovative management.

 

O. S. Rudakova, I. D. Demina, M. I. Sidorova, Zh. A. Kevorkova, O. A. Petrova (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Economic justification for optimization of production processes in industrial enterprises

This article explores the theoretical aspects of production processes at industrial enterprises. It presents the key components and performance indicators of enterprise production processes and individual optimization techniques. Practical aspects of production process optimization are also presented, demonstrating the effectiveness of individual tools for improving enterprise productivity.
Keywords: production processes (PP), optimization, industrial enterprise, costs, competitiveness, efficiency of production processes.

 

S. G. Eremin (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow); I. V. Babyna (Francisk Skorina Gomel State University, Gomel, Belarus)

Evaluation of the effectiveness of tax incentives and subsidies for research and development to enhance technological readiness and exports in manufacturing industries

The article is devoted to the quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of tax incentives and direct R&D subsidies aimed at increasing the technological readiness and export potential of manufacturing industries under sanctions and limited budgetary resources. The purpose of the study is to measure the causal effect of key government support instruments on R&D investment, technological readiness levels (TRL), export structure and complexity, as well as firms financial sustainability. The empirical base includes anonymized microdata from the financial statements and tax returns of 14580 industrial companies for 2018–2023, merged with registries of support recipients and customs statistics. The methodological framework combines Difference-in-Differences with Propensity Score Matching, panel regression models with fixed effects, proxy estimation of TRL through the structure of intangible assets and the export complexity index, as well as analysis of ROIC and EBITDA margin indicators. The results reveal pronounced sectoral heterogeneity in R&D elasticity with respect to tax incentives: heavy engineering demonstrates low sensitivity, while IT and pharmaceuticals are characterized by highly elastic responses and accelerated progress along the TRL scale. Direct subsidies prove most effective for «new» exporters and high-technology firms, generating multiple growth in export revenue and diversification of the export portfolio, but show low or negative returns under prolonged subsidization of large and resource-based exporters. Comparison of financial indicators shows that tax incentives and, to a lesser extent, comprehensive support improve ROIC and EBITDA margin, whereas long-term dependence on subsidies is associated with soft budget constraints and increased volatility of outcomes. The conclusion emphasizes the need to differentiate instruments according to company life-cycle stage and industry specificity, reallocate part of the subsidies toward tax credits and targeted grant support for breakthrough R&D in SMEs, and implement data-driven monitoring systems focused on TRL dynamics, added value, and export complexity.
Keywords: tax incentives; R&D subsidies; technological readiness; high-technology export; industrial policy.

 

O. O. Akhmedova (Kamyshin Technological Institute, branch of Volgograd State Technical University, Kamyshin); Yu. G. Semikina (Volgograd Institute of Management, branch of RANEPA, Volgograd); E. V. Bokareva (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow); V. A. Sinyukov (Pacific National University, Khabarovsk)

Formation of an integrated system of management tools for an industrial enterprise

This article defines a comprehensive system of management tools for an industrial enterprise, taking into account modern approaches to the specifics of the performance management process at an industrial enterprise. Special attention is given to the specifics of using analytical tools in managing enterprise performance – the balanced scorecard (BSC). The research results demonstrate the complexity of the problem under consideration due to the large number of elements within the management tool system and the complex nature of their interactions, as well as the presence of unpredictable influences and external factors, which necessitates the appropriate selection of management tools for an industrial enterprise.
Keywords: industrial enterprise; industrial enterprise management; management tools; production planning.

 

S. A. Tronin (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Economic security of the Russian manufacturing industry: assessment of structural adaptation under technological disruption

The Russian manufacturing industry is undergoing an accelerated transformation driven by the disruption of established supply chains for imported components and technological equipment. The task of ensuring the economic security of the industrial sector has acquired a fundamentally different character: it is no longer merely about replacing individual product lines with domestic analogues, but about restructuring the reproduction model as a whole. The article proposes a comprehensive methodology for assessing the economic security of manufacturing, integrating import dependence coefficients, fixed capital reproduction indicators, and sectoral concentration indices. The empirical base covers Rosstat and Ministry of Industry data for 2020–2025 across key manufacturing subsectors – mechanical engineering, chemicals, metallurgy, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. Import coverage ratios have been calculated for critically important product groups. The study identifies the most vulnerable sectors and those demonstrating the strongest adaptive growth. The conclusion emphasizes the heterogeneity of adaptation processes and the need for differentiated industrial policy.
Keywords: economic security; manufacturing industry; import dependence; structural adaptation; technological sovereignty; fixed capital reproduction; industrial policy.

 

R. M. Fatkhutdinova (Leninogorsk branch of A.N. Tupolev Kazan National Research Technical University - KAI, Leninogorsk); D. V. Semikin (Volgograd Institute of Management, branch of RANEPA; Volgograd State Medical University, Volgograd); A. M. Petrov (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow); A. V. Aleshkov (Pacific National University, Khabarovsk)

Innovative technologies for industrial enterprise management in the context of Industry 4.0

This article examines the transformation of industrial enterprise management systems in the context of the fourth industrial revolution. It analyzes the gap between traditional hierarchical management methods and the requirements of a digital environment based on cyber-physical systems and big data analysis. Particular attention is paid to the management aspects of implementing digital twins, predictive analytics, and Internet of Things technologies. It concludes that successful digital transformation requires restructuring organizational structures and developing new managerial competencies.
Keywords: Industry 4.0; industrial enterprise management; digital transformation; cyber-physical systems; big data; innovative management technologies.

 

N. L. Krasyukova (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Spatial economy and territorial development policy for the diversification of single-industry towns and enhancement of regional industrial cluster resilience

The article examines the impact of the spatial organization of the economy and territorial policy instruments on the diversification of single-industry towns and the resilience of regional industrial clusters under sanctions pressure and structural transformation of the Russian economy. The purpose of the study is to quantitatively assess the extent to which the integration of single-profile municipalities into cluster ecosystems reduces their budgetary, social, and financial risks compared to the model of isolated development. The empirical base consists of official statistical data from Rosstat, the Federal Treasury, the SPARK-Interfax database, materials of regional development strategies, and programs for supporting single-industry towns for 185 single-profile territories and 45 industrial clusters for the period 2017–2024. The methodological framework includes spatial econometrics, cluster analysis, calculation of the Herfindahl–Hirschman index, indicators of fiscal sustainability, ROI and investment multiplier, as well as analysis of financial ratios (EBITDA margin, Net debt/EBITDA) of resident enterprises. The findings provide evidence that single-industry towns integrated into industrial clusters have significantly higher tax revenues and fixed capital investment per capita, a smaller share of subsidies in budget revenues, lower unemployment, and higher wages compared to isolated single-profile territories; the integral multiplier across all cluster support instruments reaches 3,35, while interest rate subsidies demonstrate the highest efficiency (7,18). It is shown that within clusters, the financial indicators of SMEs improve and the debt burden of anchor companies remains at an acceptable level, whereas autonomous enterprises of single-industry towns face a sharp decline in profitability and an increase in debt burden to a high credit risk zone. The conclusion emphasizes the need to shift from a model of targeted support for city-forming enterprises to a spatial policy based on the development of cluster infrastructure, stimulation of private investments with a high multiplier effect, and differentiated strategies for various types of territories, including scenarios of integration, managed contraction, and agglomeration development.
Keywords: spatial economy; single-industry towns; industrial clusters; economic diversification; regional resilience.

 

S. P. Kirilchuk, E. V. Nalivaychenko (V. I. Vernadsky Crimean Federal University, Simferopol) 

Evolution of the innovation management system: methods, models, institutional forms

The article examines the evolution of approaches to innovation management in the context of market uncertainty. An integral view of the modern innovation management system is proposed, combining the real options method, the open innovation paradigm and the startup as a special institutional form.
Keywords: innovation; uncertainty; real options; open innovation; startup; business model; management.

 

P. I. Chuvakhin (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)  

Legal mechanisms for stimulating industrial production in the context of ensuring technological sovereignty of the Russian Federation

The transformation of geopolitical conditions and escalating sanctions pressure have intensified the need to revise the regulatory framework of industrial policy in the Russian Federation. The objective of ensuring technological sovereignty, enshrined in strategic state documents since 2022, implies not only building domestic technological competencies but also creating adequate regulatory conditions for stimulating investment in the manufacturing sector. This study aims to comprehensively analyze existing legal mechanisms for stimulating industrial production — special investment contracts (SPIC 1.0 and SPIC 2.0), industrial park and special economic zone regimes, and Industrial Development Fund instruments — from the perspective of their sufficiency and coherence for achieving technological independence. The methodology is based on formal legal and comparative legal analysis of Federal Law No. 488-FZ "On Industrial Policy in the Russian Federation," the Tax Code of the RF, and by-laws governing investment contracts, supplemented by statistical data from Rosstat, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, and the Association of Industrial Parks of Russia for 2020–2025. Structural disproportions in the distribution of support measures across industries and regions were identified, gaps in regulatory framework hindering the scaling of technology implementation projects were determined, and proposals for improving the institutional environment of industrial policy were substantiated.
Keywords: industrial policy; technological sovereignty; special investment contract; industrial park; legal regulation; manufacturing industry; Industrial Development Fund.

 

I. Yu. Vaslavskaya, D. A. Mikhalev (Naberezhnye Chelny Institute the branch of Kazan Federal University, Naberezhnye Chelny); Ya. I. Vaslavskiy (Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), Moscow)

Analysis of national projects as a tool for ensuring technological sovereignty

The article examines Russia's national projects until 2030 as key tools for achieving technological leadership, ensuring technological sovereignty, and strengthening economic security. It provides a comprehensive analysis of national projects aimed at developing priority industries, from machine tool manufacturing and the chemical industry to nuclear energy and unmanned aviation systems. Based on empirical data, the article identifies exogenous and endogenous threats and assesses the sectoral growth potential. Special attention is given to the impact of external economic factors, staff shortages, and restrictions on technology supply on achieving the targeted indicators. The research results confirm that national projects set the vector for long-term scientific and industrial development and will allow us to move from declarative to real technological sovereignty.
Keywords: technological sovereignty; national projects; economic security; national safety; priority industries; threats; innovative development.

 

А. A. Merkulov (Moscow Regional Branch of RANEPA, Krasnogorsk)

Digital transformation of real production in Russia's economy in a competitive environment

The beginning of the 21st century is characterized by unprecedented dynamics of economic processes, deterministic total digitalization, accelerated scientific and technological progress and escalating global competition. Traditional business sectors are under pressure from a number of factors: the transformation of consumer behavior, the need to implement new regulations, the expansion of innovative structures and the introduction of breakthrough technologies that change established business models and strategic orientations. In these circumstances, there is an objective need to develop new approaches that can ensure not only the retention of market positions, but also long-term sustainability of development.  Digital transformation is becoming total and irreversible, penetrating into all spheres of economic activity. The potential for the development and implementation of advanced technological solutions creates the prerequisites for optimizing management and production processes, increasing the effectiveness of the impact on business facilities. In this regard, the real sector of production needs new approaches and solutions related to changing the system of competition in the market of goods and services.
Keywords: digitalization; national economy; financial institution; competitive environment; digital platform; digital transformation; network effects.

 

M. P. Bondarenko (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Retail media as a driver of the structural transformation of the Russian advertising market in the context of the growth of e-commerce

The withdrawal of global advertising platforms from the Russian market and the rapid growth of e-commerce are triggering a profound restructuring of the structure of the domestic advertising market. Based on verifiable industry data for 2019-2025, the article examines the role of retail media advertising on marketplaces and retailers' platforms in this transformation. The purpose of the work is to assess the scale, dynamics and factors of the retail media segment development and its place in the overall structure of advertising budgets. Methodologically, the study is based on a secondary analysis of data from the Association of Communication Agencies of Russia (ACAR), the Association for the Development of Interactive Advertising (ARIR), Data Insight and other industry sources; structural, dynamic and comparative inter-source analysis are used. It is established that the share of Internet services in the media advertising market by 2024 exceeds half (52 %), and for the first time, innovative formats are overtaking traditional ones within interactive advertising. The key driver is retail media: according to ARIR estimates, in 2024 The segment is growing by 133 % to 381 billion rubles, and by the end of 2025 it will reach 580 billion rubles and become the largest segment of online advertising, accumulating over a third of the market. It is shown that the growth of the segment is determined by a fourfold increase in the turnover of e-commerce and the transfer of consumer demand to marketplaces. The problem of incompatibility of industry estimates of the volume of retail media due to differences in methods is analyzed separately. On the practical side, the results justify the redistribution of advertising investments in favor of tools based on retailers' own data, and indicate the need for a unified methodology for measuring the segment.
Keywords: retail media; advertising market; online advertising; marketplaces; e-commerce; digital marketing; mediamix; structural transformation.

 

N. D. Fokin (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Application of a neural network model with oil prices for nowcasting Russia’s GDP, consumption, and investment

Modern models for forecasting economic time series are developing along two main lines. The first focuses on modeling methods for high-dimensional datasets, and the second on methods for capturing nonlinear relationships. Neural networks are generally capable of handling both large datasets and nonlinearities in the data. However, they are often compared to simple linear models trained on smaller datasets that do not account for complex relationships. In such experiments, improvements in forecast accuracy are not decomposed into contributions from enhanced information sets and the incorporation of nonlinearity. The aim of this study is to assess the improvement in forecast accuracy due to the consideration of nonlinearities in data by a simple neural network, compared to its special cases – linear models. To this end, author uses a multilayer perceptron (MLP) applied to key Russian macroeconomic indicators: GDP, household consumption, and investment in fixed capital at constant prices. Competing models include a basic econometric autoregressive model with exogenous variables (ARX), as well as a naïve forecast. The sole explanatory variable is the price of oil, which serves as one of the main predictors of GDP and its expenditure components. In nearly all experiments, the MLP outperforms both the ARX model and the naïve forecast, even without extensive hyperparameter tuning. Even in poorly tuned configurations (those with the highest root mean square forecast error), neural networks outperform ARX specifications in half of the considered cases when using the same information set. This result may indicate the presence of a nonlinear relationship between GDP and its main components and oil prices.
Keywords: forecasting; nowcasting; neural networks; machine learning; GDP by expenditure; Russian economy.

 

O. V. Panina (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Industrial safety and risk management of critical technological chains in the context of geo-economic fragmentation of global markets

The article is devoted to the study of industrial safety and risk management of critical technological chains under conditions of geo-economic fragmentation and the transition from the efficiency paradigm to the resilience paradigm. The purpose of the study is to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of logistical, structural, and cyber risks on the financial performance of industrial enterprises and to substantiate the parameters of the «resilience premium». The empirical base includes panel data from 485 large enterprises in energy engineering, the chemical industry, metallurgy, and microelectronics for the period 2018–2024, audited IFRS reports, ESG reports, international statistics, and specialized financial databases. Methodologically, the study employs econometric modeling (panel regressions, VAR), network and graph analysis of supply chains, a modified Herfindahl–Hirschman Index for assessing supplier concentration, scenario stress testing and Monte Carlo simulation modeling, as well as content analysis and NLP processing of corporate reports. The results show that geo-economic fragmentation and the transition from Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case models are accompanied by a sharp increase in logistics costs, an extension of the financial cycle, and a growing need for working capital, especially in export-oriented and high-tech clusters, leading to a significant decline in EBITDA and an increase in its volatility. A strong positive relationship is identified between supplier concentration and the frequency of production disruptions, along with a critical dependence of high-tech industries on the import of key components, whereas high localization and diversification of supply chains are associated with lower operational VaR and reduced recovery time. It is established that companies with proactive risk management and increased CAPEX on safety achieve significant reductions in operational VaR and stock volatility and generate a positive ROIR, which indicates the existence of a stable «reliability premium» in market valuation. The conclusion is made that the optimal strategy has shifted from minimizing average costs to minimizing maximum losses, and that it is necessary to transition to integrated risk management systems combining logistical, technological, and cyber resilience, supported by industrial policy instruments that promote localization of critical links and enhancement of technological chain resilience.
Keywords: industrial safety; critical technological chains; geo-economic fragmentation; risk management; supply chain resilience.

 

P. I. Chuvakhin (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Legal mechanisms for ensuring industrial safety of hazardous production facilities: analysis of risk-based regulation effectiveness

Industrial safety of hazardous production facilities constitutes a multilevel regulatory challenge involving public and private law norms, technical regulations, supervisory management models, and economic incentive mechanisms. Since 2013, the Russian jurisdiction has been transitioning toward differentiated regulation based on a four-tier hazard classification system, fundamentally restructuring Rostekhnadzor's supervisory framework. The study aims to comprehensively assess the effectiveness of legal mechanisms ensuring industrial safety at hazardous production facilities under the risk-based regulatory model, including analysis of regulatory innovations of 2022–2025 and their impact on accident rates. The methodology synthesizes formal legal analysis, comparative legal research of foreign models, and statistical analysis of Rostekhnadzor data for 2019–2024. The implementation of risk-based regulation was found to exhibit nonlinear accident dynamics: steady decline during the 2020–2023 moratorium period was followed by a 15 % increase in detected violations in 2024 after inspection intensity was restored. Legal gaps were identified in remote monitoring regulation, industrial safety management system auditing, and interagency coordination. Directions for improving the regulatory framework considering digital transformation of supervisory activities are substantiated.
Keywords: industrial safety; hazardous production facility; risk-based approach; supervisory activities; Rostekhnadzor; legal regulation; digital monitoring.

 

R. S. Rozhkov, A. S. Moshkin (Civil Defence Academy, Khimki); A. A. Lopukhov, A. P. Tyurnikov, A. G.

Zelskiy (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)
Economic assessment of occupational safety management in the waste processing industry of the Russian Federation: risks, costs and regulatory instruments

This paper examines the economic aspects of occupational safety management at enterprises processing municipal solid waste (MSW) in the context of the ongoing waste management reform in Russia. This research is relevant due to the rapid expansion of the processing infrastructure, which is accompanied by an increase in staffing levels and, concurrently, a growing complexity of occupational hazards: from chemical and biological exposure during sorting to trivial mechanical injuries near conveyor units. The objective is to quantify the economic losses caused by occupational safety violations in the sector and to demonstrate the conditions under which preventive investments pay off. The methodological framework includes systems analysis, a matrix assessment of occupational risks in accordance with GOST 12.0.230.5-2018, calculation of total economic losses (both direct and indirect), and a comparative analysis of regional occupational safety management models at waste management facilities. The empirical material covers the period 2020–2025. The study includes data from Rosprirodnadzor, Form 2-TP (waste), Form 7-injury from Rosstat, reporting data from regional operators, and the results of an in-kind survey of 42 solid municipal waste sorting and processing facilities in five federal districts. It is found that the total economic burden of industrial injuries and diseases in the waste processing sector reaches 4,2 – 5,8 billion rubles annually; one ruble invested in preventive measures reduces losses by 3,1–4,7 rubles. Significant differences in safety indicators are recorded between regions in the first and fourth clusters. A risk-based occupational safety management model with integrated economic decision-making criteria is proposed.
Keywords: occupational safety; waste recycling industry; professional risks; economic losses; municipal solid waste; labor protection; risk-based management.

 

A. I. Galkin (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Tools of state support for capital‑intensive industries in the era of decarbonization and digital transformation of the economy: a comparative cross‑country analysis

The article analyzes the tools of state support for capital‑intensive industries under the simultaneous pressure of decarbonization and digital transformation, which create an investment gap between the need for «green» and digital investments and the willingness of private capital to finance them. The purpose of the study is to conduct a comparative cross‑country assessment of the effectiveness of direct subsidies, tax incentives, concessional lending, and state guarantees in terms of attracting private investment, reducing carbon intensity, and increasing the digital maturity of capital‑intensive industries. Based on panel data for 24 industrial economies for 2012–2024, normalized by PPP, the study employs regression models with fixed effects and instrumental variables, cluster analysis to identify «Asian» «European» and «North American» models of support, a composite digital maturity index constructed using the principal components method, as well as Monte Carlo simulation for stress‑testing the results under changes in energy prices and carbon quotas. The findings show that tax credits and interest rate subsidies provide a higher investment multiplier than direct grants, whereas state guarantees, due to the specific features of the Chinese financial system, generate the highest leverage in attracting private capital; at the same time, a strong nonlinear inverse relationship is revealed between the level of digital maturity of an industry and the unit cost of decarbonization, confirming the role of digitalization as a deflator of «green» inflation. The analysis of the impact of the share of state participation on the WACC of megaprojects reveals a trade‑off between capital cost reduction and longer payback periods, as well as the phenomenon of a «middle‑level investment trap» that arises from a combination of moderate digitalization and moderate support. The study concludes that the effectiveness of policy instruments is context‑dependent and that there are digital maturity thresholds beyond which the optimal structure of government support shifts from direct subsidies to tax‑based and risk‑sharing tools, necessitating a transition to adaptive, KPI‑oriented regimes of industrial policy.
Keywords: state support; capital‑intensive industries; decarbonization; digital transformation; investment multiplier.

 

А. А. Merkulov (Moscow Regional Branch of RANEPA, Krasnogorsk)

Digitalization of the national economy: modern challenges and tasks

The article discusses current issues of digital transformation in Russia, including state participation in digitalization and the impact of this phenomenon on changes in the population's employment. The article highlights the positive effects of digitalization, such as the impact of the digitalization process on the national economy, changes in the planes of sociocultural interaction, and the transformation of the employment structure. At the same time, the article discusses new challenges facing the national economy, including the improvement of the education system, the quality of labor resources, and the historical and cultural aspects of this process. The article analyzes the current processes of digitalization in certain sectors of the Russian economy, identifies the positive and negative consequences of this process, and outlines the key challenges faced by society and the national economy. The article demonstrates the role of digitalization processes as an effective tool for improving the standard of living and quality of life for the population. The study aims to develop recommendations that will help improve the effectiveness and efficiency of government management decisions in the field of digitalization at the national level. However, the successful implementation of this process requires a comprehensive approach, taking into account global trends and continuously improving both the methodological framework and the institutional conditions. The results of the study allow us to assess the scale of the impact of digitalization on the national economy and understand the impact of this process on the changing nature of socio-economic interactions and the quality of life in Russia.
Keywords: digitalization; national economy; digital economy; employment transformation; impact of digitalization on quality of life; digital differentiation; Russia.

 

N. A. Zavyalova (Ural State Pedagogical University, Yekaterinburg)  

Trends in the communicative behavior of middle managers at an industrial enterprise

This paper examines how the communicative behavior of middle managers at industrial enterprises is changing significantly under the pressure of digitalization and the spread of hybrid employment formats. The relevance of this topic lies in the fact that traditional vertical, directive models are giving way to multichannel, horizontally oriented forms of interaction. The goal is to identify and classify the dominant patterns of communicative behavior among middle managers at industrial enterprises in the Ural Federal District. Methodologically, the study relies on questionnaires (n = 186), semi-structured interviews (n = 24), and discourse analysis of corporate texts. The empirical base consisted of six enterprises in the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions; Data was collected from March to November 2025. The practical value of this study lies in substantiating recommendations for optimizing internal corporate communication in the industrial sector.
Keywords: communicative behavior; middle managers; industrial enterprise; organizational communication; discursive competencies; digital transformation; internal communication.

 

A. G. Dmitriev, N. V. Gromova, A. N. Fomichev, M. E. Leonov, O. L. Tolmachev (Synergy University, Moscow)

Coaching management and motivation in the project management architecture of innovative conglomerates

Innovative conglomerates operating amid rapid technological shifts and increasingly complex organizational structures face a growing need to move beyond conventional management approaches toward human-centered, self-learning systems. This study systematizes the theoretical and methodological underpinnings of coaching management and traces its connections to motivation theory, leadership studies, organizational learning, and humanistic psychology. The findings suggest that coaching management paves the way for replacing rigid hierarchical project governance with networked, adaptive models grounded in trust, feedback, and the intrinsic motivation of team members. The proposed model spans four integration levels – strategic, program-project, team, and individual – linked by three cross-cutting flows: goals, interactions, and data. A process framework for model implementation is outlined, covering initiation, configuration, execution, and adaptation stages. Key roles, management principles, and a risk framework are presented. The practical value of the work lies in the applicability of the model to human capital management system design, leadership development, and the embedding of coaching approaches in project activities of innovative organizations.
Keywords: coaching management; motivation; project management; innovative conglomerates; organizational culture; engagement; human capital; learning organization.

 

S. A. Polevoy (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Transformation of the competence requirements of the labor market for project managers in the context of the transition to flexible management methodologies

The project management form has gone beyond individual industries and has become a working tool for companies to adapt to an unstable environment, and the demand for project managers is steadily growing both in the world and in Russia. At the same time, the proliferation of flexible methodologies is reshaping the very competence model of the project manager. The article is based on secondary data from the reports of the Project Management Institute and the World Economic Forum, the annual Agile in Russia study, and open labor market analytics. hh.ru – and publications in peer-reviewed journals examine how the competence requirements of the labor market for project managers are changing and what consequences this entails for the personnel management of project teams. It is shown that the center of gravity of the competence model is shifting from planning and control to leadership, facilitation and value management.; that flexible approaches have reached the stage of mass adoption in Russian organizations; that the key barriers to transition lie in the personnel and cultural plane. The directions of adaptation of HR management of project teams are proposed: selection according to behavioral competencies, development of scrum roles and retention of scarce specialists in the coordinated work of the project office and HR functions.
Keywords: project management; project manager; labor market; competencies; flexible methodologies; Agile; personnel management; HR management. 

 

M. V. Polevaya (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Shortage of personnel in the Russian labor market and transformation of personnel management systems (2021-2025)

The unprecedented decline in unemployment and the persistent shortage of workers are turning the shortage of personnel from a conjunctural episode into a structural constraint on economic growth, shifting the center of gravity of personnel management from hiring to retaining and developing staff. The purpose of the study is to assess the scale, dynamics, and professional and industry structure of the personnel shortage in the Russian labor market in 2021–2025 and to systematize the areas of adaptation of corporate personnel management systems. The empirical base includes data from a sample survey of the workforce and statistics on wages from Rosstat, quarterly monitoring of Bank of Russia enterprises (over 15000 enterprises), and analytics hh.ru (more than 10 million vacancies in 2025); methods of dynamic and structural analysis of secondary data are applied. It is established that the average annual unemployment rate is decreasing from 4,8 % in 2021 to 2,1–2,2 % in 2025, and the balance of estimates of the provision of enterprises with employees is falling from –6.4 points in 2020 to a historical minimum in 2024, followed by mitigation in 2025 (from –27,5 points in the second quarter to –23,2 p. in the fourth quarter). The shortage is of a pronounced professional nature: the smallest number of job resumes are for working, linear and medical specialties. The reaction of employers is shifting from price competition (real wages are rising by 9,1 % in 2024, but slowing to 4,5 % in January–September 2025) to retention, engagement of previously unemployed categories, and increased productivity through automation and digitalization of HR functions. A typology of directions for the transformation of personnel management systems in a labor-deficient environment is proposed.
Keywords: labor market; staff shortage; personnel management; staff retention; staffing; real wages; staff turnover; HR digitalization; labor productivity.

 

I. A. Volkova, E. Yu. Legchilina, O. M. Kirilyuk, T. V. Tsalko (Omsk State Transport University, Omsk)

The impact of Industry 4.0 on the behavior of railway transport organization personnel

Employee adaptation to digital technologies is based on cognitive adaptation and often encounters resistance. Industry 4.0 involves the transformation of established rules, norms, organizational structures, and behavioral patterns under the influence of digital solutions. New technologies conflict with old ethical norms, and institutional inertia contributes to internal conflicts, necessitating the creation of a new business ecosystem with its own «rules of the game». The aim of the study was to determine the impact of Industry 4.0 technologies on the behavior of personnel in railway transport organizations. The authors noted that the effectiveness of digital technology implementation depends on employee engagement in the digital transformation process. Developing modern employee values in railway transport organizations requires detailed consideration, as any innovative solutions generate employee resistance, manifested through opportunistic behavior, which in turn negatively impacts the implementation of Industry 4.0 technologies.
Keywords: Industry 4.0, digital transformation, engagement, employee values, rail transport, ecosystem.

 

S. A. Polevoy (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Staffing of project activities in conditions of shortage in the Russian labor market: quantitative and qualitative dimensions of the problem (2020-2025)

The article considers the staffing of the project activities of Russian organizations in the context of a record structural shortage of labor. According to a sample survey by Rosstat, in 2024, the shortage of employees reaches 7,6 % of the declared need (2,2 million people with a registered number of 27,2 million), which is the maximum for the entire observation period since 2008. The empirical base consists of data from Rosstat, the labor market analyst service hh.ru, forecasts of the Ministry of Labor and the Bank of Russia, industry research for 2020-2025.; Statistical, dynamic, and comparative analysis methods are used, as well as content analysis of employer surveys. It is established that for project-oriented organizations, the shortage is mainly qualitative rather than quantitative in nature: the nationwide shortage of personnel is combined with cooling and increasing competition in the market of managerial and project positions (hh.the index for the role of «project manager» is 34,5 resumes per vacancy in mid–2025, with a reduction in the number of white-collar vacancies by 25 % per year). The demand is shifting towards specialists with a hybrid competence profile and skills in working with artificial intelligence tools. A ranked set of HR tools for project teams is proposed – internal mobility, development of T-shaped competencies, project competence centers, retention through participation in significant projects, taking into account the specifics of project human resource management.
Keywords: project activity; staffing; labor market; shortage of qualified personnel; project human resource management; flexible methodologies; project manager competencies; staff retention.

 

M. V. Polevaya (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

The staffing shortage in the Russian labour market and the transformation of staff retention strategies (2021–2025)

Over the past five years, the Russian labour market has undergone a sharp reversal: from a situation of an excessive supply of labour to a persistent staffing shortage. The nature and scale of this shortage are described, its causes are identified and the change in the priorities of personnel management is traced, shifting them from recruitment to retention of personnel. It is shown that the unemployment rate is decreasing from 4,8 % in 2021 to 2,1 % by August 2025, which is the minimum for the entire period of observations since 1992, while real wages are increasing by 8,2 % in 2023 and by 9,1 % in 2024. The deficit is clearly segmented: on average in the market the value of the hh index is about 6 resumes for vacancies in mass workers and linear professions, it drops to 1,3–2,3, and in the segment of managers it reaches 18–19. It has been established that staff retention has become a priority for approximately two-thirds of employers and the retention toolkit goes beyond salary increases to include flexible employment formats, well-being programs and HR process automation.
Keywords: labor market; staff shortage; staff retention; personnel management; unemployment; wages; hh-index; staff motivation; talent management.

 

S. A. Tronin (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Green bonds as a mechanism for financing investment projects for sustainable development in the Russian economy: market dynamics and risk management

Achieving national goals for sustainable (including green) development requires the reorientation of significant amounts of financial resources into projects with measurable environmental and social impacts, and the debt market is one of the key channels for this reorientation. The article analyzes the role of green and other sustainable development bonds as a mechanism for financing investment projects in the Russian economy. The purpose of the work is to assess the dynamics, structure and institutional architecture of the Russian sustainable development bond market and to systematize the risks limiting its growth. The empirical base consists of data from the Moscow Stock Exchange, regulatory acts of the Government of the Russian Federation, reviews of the rating agencies ACRA and Expert RA, as well as the expert analytical platform INFRAGRIN for 2019-2024; methods of dynamic and structural analysis and comparison with the global market are used. It has been established that after a record 2021 (211,9 billion rubles of placements), the market is going through a recession, and by the end of 2024, the volume of securities in circulation reached 530 billion rubles. at the lowest growth rate for the period. At the same time, a sharp structural shift is taking place: the share of green bonds in the volume of placements is decreasing from 45,5 % in 2023 to 5,3 % in 2024, while the share of social bonds is growing to 75,8 %. The core of issuers is formed by development institutions and companies with state participation. The key barriers are the lack of a sustainable «greenium», the risk of greenwashing, and insufficient regulatory incentives. The practical significance of the results is to substantiate the priorities of government market support and the choice of debt instruments for financing sustainable development projects.
Keywords: green bonds; sustainable financing; ESG; financing of investment projects; bond market; risk management; taxonomy of sustainable development; Moscow Stock Exchange.

 

N. V. Kuchkovskaya (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

State support and financial stability of Russian industrial enterprises in the context of a high key rate

The financial position of Russian manufacturing enterprises in 2024 is under dual pressure: the return on goods sold in the manufacturing industry is declining to approximately 14,7, down from 17,1 % a year earlier, while the overall financial result for the economy is declining by 6,9 %. This paper examines the role of state support for industry, particularly concessional debt financing, in maintaining the financial stability of industrial enterprises during a period of sharply rising credit costs. It shows that the increase in the Bank of Russia's key rate to a record 21 % per annum in the second half of 2024 is sharply increasing the cost of market debt financing, while key support instruments maintain capital availability only for a limited number of projects. A gap is observed between the formal growth in manufacturing output, supported by import substitution and government procurement, and the contraction in profitability and investment activity amid tight finance. A conclusion has been reached regarding the advisability of differentiating support measures and shifting the emphasis from targeted interest rate subsidies to reducing investment's dependence on the cost of market credit.
Keywords: industrial enterprises; manufacturing industry; profitability; government support for industry; preferential lending; key rate; financial stability; technological sovereignty.

 

T. V. Vashchenko (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Retail investor behavior and industrial financing: how high interest rates and behavioral biases divert capital from the real sector (2020–2025)

Over the past five years, the number of individuals with brokerage accounts on the Moscow Exchange has grown from 8.8 million at the end of 2020 to 39,7 million by the beginning of December 2025, and in public discourse, this influx is often presented as a new source of financing for the economy. This study assesses the extent to which mass retail investors are becoming a channel for financing the real (industrial) sector, and identifies the behavioral and monetary barriers diverting this capital from investment in production. The empirical basis is official data from the Moscow Exchange and the Bank of Russia for 2020–2025. It has been established that behind the façade of nearly 40 million accounts, a narrow layer of actual investors is hidden: those with assets exceeding 10,000 rubles. Only about 5 million people have accounts (approximately 86 % of accounts are empty or near zero), while approximately 11,500 wealthy investors hold almost half of the total portfolio. The investment structure demonstrates a pronounced «home preference»: the entire «people's portfolio» consists of ten securities from the largest issuers in the raw materials and financial sectors, while shares of a wide range of manufacturing companies remain outside it. Fund allocation is strictly controlled by monetary policy: during a period of record key interest rates (21 % since October 2024), retail investors are flocking en masse to money market funds (approximately 83 % of the exchange-traded fund portfolio) and bonds, i.e., instruments that do not finance corporate capital investment. It is concluded that the retail boom alone is not a source of equity financing for industry: this requires a reduction in behavioral barriers, increased financial literacy, and conditions under which investments in production development are competitive with the risk-free rate.
Keywords: retail investors; behavioral finance; industrial financing; real sector; key rate; money market funds; home preference; equity financing.

 

M. P. Lazarev (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

The Bank of Russia's monetary policy and industrial financing conditions: key rate, money supply, and inflation (2014–2025)

The Bank of Russia's key rate is the primary monetary policy instrument and, simultaneously, the key parameter determining the cost of borrowed financing for industry. The objective of this study is to assess, using verified official data, the relationship between the key rate, money supply (M2), and the exchange rate with inflation in Russia over the entire targeting period (2014–2025, n = 12) and to characterize the monetary regime that shapes industrial financing conditions. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis (simultaneous and with a one-year lag), and parsimony regression of inflation on ruble devaluation, M2 growth, and the key rate are used. The results show that, on an annualized basis, the exchange rate is most strongly correlated with inflation (r = +0,54): pass-through remains the dominant short-term channel. The synchronous correlation between the interest rate and inflation is positive (r = +0,41), but reflects the endogeneity of the policy rule rather than the pro-inflationary effect of the interest rate. The relationship between M2 growth and inflation is weak and close to zero with a one-year lag. The real key rate in 2023–2025 reaches a record high of +8,6 to +11,5 percentage points – the tightest monetary regime during the targeting period, signifying a sharp increase in the cost of borrowed financing for industry and a shift in investment toward self-financing. It is concluded that, for the real sector, exchange rate stability and anchoring expectations are no less important than the interest rate level, and a high real rate shifts the burden of financing industrial investments to enterprises' own funds and government support instruments. 
Keywords: monetary policy; key rate; inflation; money supply; exchange rate; transmission mechanism; industrial financing; real rate.

 

M. P. Bondarenko (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow)

Structural transformation of the Russian advertising market in 2019–2025: digitalization, concentration of media segments and the phenomenon of retail media

Over the period 2019-2025, the Russian advertising market in its distribution media increased from 498,7 billion rubles to 981,6 billion rubles, but the key process is not the growth of volumes, but the restructuring of the internal structure of the market. The paper quantifies structural shifts, the level of digitalization and concentration of the Russian advertising market, as well as the role of retail media as a new structural driver. The empirical base consists of official data from the Association of Communication Agencies of Russia (ACAR) on five media segments, recalculated using a single methodology for 2019–2024. and supplemented by the results of 2025, Rosstat data on nominal GDP, estimates of the Data Insight e-commerce market and the retail media segment (ARIR, Okkam). Structural and dynamic analysis (segment shares, basic and chain indexes, average annual growth rate), concentration analysis (Herfindahl–Hirschman index, CR2 coefficient) and segment growth decomposition are used. It is established that the share of Internet services is growing from 43,7 to 52 %, and the segment itself provides 60.5% of the absolute market growth over the period; Outdoor advertising shows the maximum average annual growth rate (16,4 %) due to digital media, while the publishing segment is declining (–2,8 % per year). The media structure concentration index is growing from 3,485 to 3,907 points by 2023 and will stabilize around 3,850, which corresponds to a high level of concentration around the digital channel. The outstripping growth of the Internet segment is based on e-commerce (11,2 trillion rubles in 2024) and retail media (about 437 billion rubles, +58 % over the year). The results form an empirical basis for decisions on the allocation of advertising budgets and the structure of the media mix.
Keywords: advertising market; marketing communications; digitalization; online advertising; retail media; market concentration; Herfindahl–Hirschman index; structural dynamics.

 

E. D. Khisamova, V. G. Serebryakov (Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, Kazan)

A principled approach to evaluating the efficiency of the technological process of the assembly shop of a machine-building enterprise based on local indicators

The technological process of assembling a product of a machine-building enterprise is analyzed using value stream maps that reflect its current and future state, and local indicators are proposed to assess its effectiveness. Based on the principles of value, pull, and continuity of flow, a system of measures has been developed to improve the technological process. This approach is a more streamlined solution to problems, where the focus is on the value stream and eliminating losses through improvement measures.
Keywords: process engineering; value stream map; cycle time; overall equipment effectiveness; waste; flow efficiency.